This weekend, we’ve got a 13-fight card Milwaukee which will be the previous UFC on FOX card due to this brand new ESPN deal. We are back to having smaller prize pools for this particular event but there’s still good money to be won. The most important GPP is a $10 entrance with $15,000 to 1st place. Those huge GPPs with a nice top trophy are always my favourite contests to chase so I’ll be shooting some shots at that. Other than that, I’ll stick to my 3-entry maximum & single entry GPPs. I will also be picking up H2Hs throughout the week and that I will get a good amount of play in games. Here are a few plays I enjoy for Saturday and my fade of the week:
Money Game play of this week — Kevin Lee ($9,000)
The most important event is nearly always the best fight to get into money games and stacking both fighters out of a 5-round fight usually makes a lot of sense. I think you can stack the main event here as well, but I believe Kevin Lee is the must drama of the two. He is a -335 favorite and -135 ITD in order that he wins he’s going to score tremendously and based on Vegas he’s a 77% probability of winning. He also scored 164 DK points in his final fight so not only does he even possess a top floor, but he probably has the highest ceiling on the card as well. This is where I will be starting my money lineup weekly.
GPP drama of this week — Jared Gordon ($8,600)
Following weigh-ins we saw a great deal of cash come in on Joaquim Silva and this fight is virtually a PK fight on the betting odds now. Usually when that occurs we see the possession on DraftKings follow suit and also the underdog gains ownership because of the value. I think Gordon’s ownership will go down because of that and that is what makes him a fantastic GPP play. Gordon strikes in the maximum pace on the card landing 6.68 sig strikes per minute. He also lands 3.41 takedowns per 15-minutes. He doesn’t even need a end to score 100+ points and that is the reason why I enjoy him in this place. I am not guaranteeing a win by any means, but if he can win then he must score well.
Underdog drama of this week — Mike Rodriguez ($7,500)
Mike Rodriguez is 1,200 less costly than Adam Milstead in this matchup, but he’s just +115 in comparison to Milstead’s -135 gaming lineup. I adore the value we’re getting there, and that I believe Rodriguez wins this battle. I do expect him to become among the very popular underdogs on the card, but it is chalk I am willing to eat. IF Rodriquez does win then it’s probably going to be so not only could he have the triumph, but he would score highly as well. I think if he does win this fight he then ends up on the 1st place lineup and he is my favorite underdog of the week because of this.
Fade of the week — Drakkar Klose ($9,300)
I am not fading Klose because I believe he loses, I’m actually picking him to acquire a Unanimous Decision here. I am fading him since he is $9.3k and together with his fighting style that I don’t see him getting over 10x that wages. If I’m making 20 lineups this weekend Klose will be in 0 of them. Klose has 3 UFC wins so much in his profession and he’s scored 63, 68, and 74 DK points in these 3 wins. If he scores around this area again in this fight, then that pretty much kills your odds in winning a GPP because the other men because $9k stove likely score higher and likely even over 100-points. That makes Klose my fade of the week.
If you’d like my own full-card DraftKings breakdown using analysis on each fight, my private approaches & suggestions, and also my selection outlook for every fight then you can find that beneath the Premium Picks tab on MMAoddsbreaker if you click on Upcoming Picks. Or you can just go to this link below:
(Premium bets are offered at that link as well. I’m 47-28 to get +169.81u (+$16,981) because May 19th on Premium Plays. I’m also +75.37u the previous 7 weeks!)
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